Saturday, February 28, 2015

An Exercise in Subjective Athletic Quantification


Every group of football-loving friends does it.

100% of the time it's highly divisive, never results in any consensus decisions, and can even lead to some semi-heated arguments that cause two people to have some beef for like 42 minutes. Each person is convinced that they're getting screwed over. Each person thinks that whenever someone proposes a number for themselves, it's way too high. It's entirely subjective, holds no tangible weight, and has no impact on each person's actual performance on the field.

I am, of course, talking about the remarkable process of a group of people attempting to assign football ratings to themselves, yes, just like the Madden video game, based on their performances during pickup football games. It's inevitable for a squad that plays football together frequently, also plays Madden, and enjoys arguing with one another over who's better at which aspect of the game.

Call me biased, but no other group of goons and sports junkies gets their blood pumping, their hearts racing, their fists ready, than my group of friends when it comes to a subject such as this one. We live for this. Half our conversations are pointless arguments that there is no correct answer to, yet everyone thinks their opinion is the only one that should exist. Throw in our abilities to run, throw, catch, tackle, etc. while we battle against each other each fall on the mystical fields of Stony Point Elementary School, and we're ready to Royal Rumble (By the way, the picture in that link is less of an exaggeration than you might think. On multiple occasions, members of our group have executed/have been the victim of an RKO).

Now, it's obviously only me behind the keyboard, therefore I hold all the power in deciding all my friends' attributes, right? Well, yeah mostly. Full disclosure, I was inspired to pen this post after seeing FiveThirtyEight's fascinating and thorough feature titled "How Madden Ratings Are Made". Contained in the article is EA Sports' systematic formula that they use to determine each virtual player's Overall rating. For a game that incorporates an endless amount of complex code and next-gen technology, the method of creating a player's OVR (Overall rating is now abbreviated OVR for the rest of the post) is relatively simple.

Short answer: the OVR is a weighted average of all the player's individual attributes. Naturally, players at different positions have different ratings weighted more than others. For example, a quarterback's Throw Power and Awareness will make up a total of 40% of his OVR just between those two ratings. Short, Mid, and Deep Accuracy (all relatively new ratings; Accuracy used to just be one attribute) then make up another 40%. The remaining 20% is determined by the player's Play Action ability, Speed, Agility, Throw On the Run, and Acceleration in descending numerical order.

As I mentioned earlier, my rankings will be "mostly" subjective. Every individual attribute assigned to each person will be determined solely by my observations from the football games we play. However, each person's OVR will be determined using EA's weighted average system...with a few differences. For one, I am not going to assign 47 attributes like Madden does. Secondly, we don't necessarily have positions in pickup football. There's a QB on each team, sure, but the rest of the offense is simply "receivers", and the defense is all "corners" or perhaps a safety.

As a result, I will weight the ratings that best exemplify the style that each person plays with. In other words, if a member of my group is known to be someone who relies on brute strength and power, ratings like Strength, Break Tackle (which I prefer to Trucking), Stiff Arm and Hit Power will be valued slightly more than other ratings. Conversely, a finesse player will see his Agility and Juke Move (No Spin Move; not a lot of those are actually executed in-game) abilities carry more weight. More technical players will have higher percentages for skills like Route Running and Release. Last but certainly not least, members of my group who primarily play off their athleticism will carry more weight from their Acceleration and Jumping.

Notice how I didn't include Speed anywhere. That's because Speed will weight equally for everyone since it is equally important to each person's game regardless of how they play. Other categories that will weight equally are Coverage (we only play man), Catching, Tackle, Awareness, and Stamina. These 5 categories, along with Speed, won't all have the same numerical value, but the weight each one carries will not change from person-to-person. A bit confusing? Perhaps, but hopefully you're following along.

A couple of notes before I finally get to assigning the ratings:

  • All ratings are relative. For example, if someone has a 97 catching rating, that means that they likely have the best hands out of the people here. It does not mean that I think one of my friends is as good at catching footballs as, say, Larry Fitzgerald.
  • You won't find any blocking ratings here. We have played maybe a total of 5 games involving offensive lines ever, and each person's ability to block is fairly irrelevant in usual games. On a similar token, defensive lineman skills like Power and Finesse Moves (pass-rushing ability) won't factor in either. Ditto for kicking ratings.
  • Since we almost always play with no true running backs, Ball Carrier Vision will not be factored in. The field is pretty wide open in a standard 6-on-6, so if you can't see where you want to go with the ball, then I don't know if football is your sport. Carrying also won't be include simply because no one really fumbles often enough that they're especially known for carelessness with the ball.
  • A Spectacular Catch rating will also not be included, as there really isn't too many "spectacular" catches made in all, much less by any one person, that would warrant any weight toward each person's OVR . Well, except for the legendary Matt Walsh, who was almost exclusively known for his crazy catches. Sadly, Walsh will not be included as a player in this post.
  • I likely value Awareness more than others. Awareness in our brand of football is probably less expansive than in the NFL, though. Just to fully clarify, Awareness will be determined by a person's propensity to: read the QB's eyes in coverage, anticipate a pick or a double move, cut upfield instead of trying to turn the corner, etc.
  • Vinny Greco exclusively plays QB in our games, therefore he will be graded out slightly different than everyone else, as throwing ratings will be incorporated. 2 others, Mike Santini and Kevin Hylas, play QB either some or most of the time, so they will be assigned an OVR for when they play QB, as well as a second OVR for when they play WR.
  • Finally, to the subjects of this post: I will do my best to accurately reflect our respective athleticism/football acumen. That being said, I will "get some things wrong" in each of your eyes. It's just going to happen. I like to think that I actually do pay enough attention to how each person plays and what their strengths and weaknesses are to be able to construct these ratings. You will probably disagree, and that's OK.
At last, we have arrived at the point in the post that most people have likely skipped down to anyway. Here are my Madden ratings for each warrior that enters the gridiron alongside me each autumn Saturday:

Key:
AWR = Awareness, SPD = Speed, ACC = Acceleration, AGI = Agility, STR = Strength, STA = Stamina, JKM = Juke Move, SFA = Stiff Arm, BTK = Break Tackle, CTH = Catching, RTE = Route Running, RLS = Release, JMP = Jumping, TAK = Tackle, BSH = Block Shedding, POW = Hit Power, CVR = Coverage

Chris "Sauce" Apicella

Height/Weight:
6'1", 210 lbs

Play Style:
Power

Ratings:
AWR 80, SPD 81, ACC 84, AGI 82, STR 93, STA 84, JKM 75, SFA 85, BTK 82, CTH 88, RTE 84, RLS 84, JMP 85, TAK 87, BSH 89, POW 82, CVR 82, OVR 84

Bio:
Apicella's game revolves around his ability to outmuscle his opponent and use his height to gain an advantage. He may not flash any major wheels, but his long strides can allow him to get over the top of the defense, which, combined with his size, makes him a solid deep threat. Defensively, "Sauce" doesn't make many mistakes and is one of the more consistent tacklers in the group. Perhaps a better safety than pure corner, though his coverage skills should not be considered a liability.

Brandon Curtis

Height/Weight:
5'10", 165 lbs

Play Style:
Athletic

Ratings:
AWR 77, SPD 96, ACC 97, AGI 92, STR 83, STA 99, JKM 84, SFA 80, BTK 80, CTH 80, RTE 73, RLS 91, JMP 80, TAK 84, BSH 81, POW 78, CVR 86, OVR 83

Bio:
The owner of the highest speed rating of the group, Curtis utilizes his great speed by working the fly routes and burning his man deep. Despite not possessing ideal size, Curtis can be difficult to bring down when he gets his legs moving. A Division I soccer player, simply getting a piece of Curtis can be a challenge as a result of his plus agility. Unrelenting in forcing his defender to continually run all over the field with him, Curtis' biggest asset is being fresh while everyone else is tiring.

Dom Greco

Height/Weight:
5'7", 130 lbs

Play Style:
Finesse

Ratings:
AWR 68, SPD 79, ACC 84, AGI 84, STR 63, STA 78, JKM 82, SFA 68, BTK 76, CTH 82, RTE 88, RLS 80, JMP 68, TAK 72, BSH 66, POW 58, CVR 74, OVR 77

Bio:
Perhaps a bit undervalued by my formula, Dom is a very useful player on the field in the mold of the classic small, quick receiver who can get you some easy catches to move the ball. Obviously, that doesn't show up in the numbers. Dom's stature does provide some limitations which hurt his overall slightly. An inability to tackle the bigger players consistently is certainly a weakness, though he will always try to at least make some contact and allow his teammates to make their way over for the gang tackle.

Vinny Greco

Height/Weight:
6'0", 155 lbs

Play Style:
Quarterback

Ratings:
AWR 85, SPD 81, ACC 84, AGI 80, STR 72, STA 82, JKM 79, SFA 77, BTK 72, CTH 75, RTE 69, RLS 73, JMP 74, TAK 76, BSH 69, POW 64, CVR 80, THP 92, SAC 91, MAC 88, DAC 85, OVR 83

Bio:
As mentioned above, Vinny almost exclusively plays QB, so he received 4 throwing ratings that were factored into his overall. His catching, route running, and release ratings were not. Vinny is certainly an above-average quarterback, even though he doesn't possess the biggest arm around. Still, he can sling it all around the field, including deep, with adequate velocity. Vinny reads blitzes well and is known for his pump-and-run move when pressured. He loves looking for the deep ball, as evidenced by his affinity for calling curl-and-go routes for his receivers.

George Green

Height/Weight:
6'2", 200 lbs

Play Style:
Athletic

Ratings:
AWR 91, SPD 91, ACC 93, AGI 92, STR 90, STA 96, JKM 92, SFA 88, BTK 89, CTH 95, RTE 94, RLS 95, JMP 90, TAK 89, BSH 90, POW 92, CVR 92, OVR 93

Bio:
The fact that Green's lowest rating is an 88 perfectly illustrates the type of player he is: high-level across the board. Green does everything well on the pickup football field, and he plays hard on every down. Used often in the screen game, Green excels at picking up yards after the catch using his larger frame and good agility. As a cover corner, Green shadows his matchup, almost always the opposing team's #1, and does not usually allow more catches than he breaks up. A fine tackler as well, Green's all-around play certainly justifies his high OVR.


Kevin "K-Hy" Hylas

Height/Weight:
5'11", 180 lbs

Play Style:
QB/Athletic

Ratings:
AWR 91, SPD 94, ACC 92, AGI 96, STR 86, STA 91, JKM 95, SFA 93, BTK 96, CTH 95, RTE 94, RLS 97, JMP 97, TAK 93, BSH 92, POW 88, CVR 93, THP 96, SAC 92, MAC 91, DAC 88, (QB) OVR 92, (WR) OVR 93

Bio:
Most often the QB of the team that Vinny isn't on, Hylas displays great touch on all his throws. Accuracy to every level of the field is well above-average, and velocity is always there. As a receiver, Hylas is an elite talent who, along with his usual matchup George, has the ability to take over a game. Leaping ability on jump balls is exceptional, as well as his ability to separate from his man out of his breaks. Defensively, Hylas is stout in coverage and is certainly an able tackler. The only downside to Hylas' game is a nagging shoulder injury that occasionally limits his effectiveness and overall ability to play.

Alex Mednick

Height/Weight:
5'11", 175 lbs

Play Style:
Technical

Ratings:
AWR 89, SPD 79, ACC 81, AGI 81, STR 81, STA 88, JKM 83, SFA 77, BTK 82, CTH 81, RTE 92, RLS 88, JMP 77, TAK 83, BSH 80, POW 71, CVR 84, OVR 82


Bio:
Though my friends will likely disagree, I felt like I did a solid job of not favoring myself too much. I play a fundamentally sound game that includes fairly sharp and diverse routes, as well as being highly successful in my releases against press coverage. My game certainly does not rely on my speed, but instead on my knowledge of how to get open and work my leverage. I may be sounding like a pompous, know-it-all football nerd, but this is how I see the game while I play and it is the only way I'm able to make an impact.

Dylan Mednick

Height/Weight:
5'9", 185 lbs

Play Style:
Power

Ratings:
AWR 76, SPD 68, ACC 70, AGI 74, STR 86, STA 78, JKM 72, SFA 84, BTK 80, CTH 78, RTE 81, RLS 76, JMP 66, TAK 77, BSH 75, POW 80, CVR 65, OVR 75

Bio:
My brother Dylan gives it his all out there, I have to credit him there. That being said, he takes the title of lowest OVR. His biggest deficiency has to be his lack of speed. His man is usually able to beat him in a straight line or off a cut, though Dylan refuses to ever give up on a play despite losing his assignment. With the ball, Dylan can make some plays happen by using his bulk and decent athleticism for his build to catch opponents off guard. Love the kid, but he ranks at the bottom in this exercise.

Blaise Panepinto

Height/Weight:
5'8", 145 lbs

Play Style:
Finesse

Ratings:
AWR 74, SPD 90, ACC 93, AGI 94, STR 85, STA 99, JKM 83, SFA 71, BTK 83, CTH 82, RTE 77, RLS 83, JMP 78, TAK 80, BSH 74, POW 70, CVR 78, OVR 83

Bio:
The favorite to be the most likely debated OVR (especially by Curtis), Panepinto is another Division I soccer player who can run his man right off the field due to his ability to seemingly never get tired. Blaise possesses great quickness, and is a tough tackle due to his exceptional balance and shiftiness. Average player defensively, his speed helps him to recover from any lapses.


Mark Riello

Height/Weight:
6'1", 160 lbs

Play Style:
Finesse

Ratings:
AWR 81, SPD 79, ACC 80, AGI 81, STR 79, STA 74, JKM 81, SFA 80, BTK 80, CTH 83, RTE 78, RLS 84, JMP 84, TAK 82, BSH 77, POW 75, CVR 82,  OVR 80

Bio:
My rival is about as competitive as they come, but I couldn't help but give myself the edge in terms of OVR (after all, I did win our last two matchups). Riello is very good at using his height advantage on me, and other players, to high point the ball and secure it before his defender can get a hand on it. Riello is a very feisty defender who prides himself on constant contact throughout a route. He's got that whole "looks slower than he actually is" thing going on, and that type of deceptive quickness helps him when making plays with the ball.

Michael "Slim" Santini

Height/Weight:
6'1", 215 lbs

Play Style:
Quarterback/Power

Ratings:
AWR 85, SPD 85, ACC 88, AGI 87, STR 97, STA 80, JKM 84, SFA 97, BTK 94, CTH 88, RTE 84, RLS 86, JMP 91, TAK 94, BSH 96, POW 95, CVR 89, THP 93, SAC 88, MAC 83, DAC 81, (QB) OVR 87, (WR) OVR 93

Bio:
Santini arguably possess the best size-speed combo among the group. This, combined with his bruising brand of football, makes him quite the formidable force on both sides of the ball. On the not-too-often occasion where Santini takes snaps at QB, he flashes above-average to very good qualities as a passer. His accuracy can sometimes break down, but usually Santini hits his target on most passes. Otherwise on the field, Santini's great movement abilities for his size possibly inflated his overall a bit, though, when being fed the ball, Santini can dominate. On defense, he is a hard hitter, a menace to block, and he holds up reasonably well in coverage. High level player all around.

Logan Vasquez

Height/Weight:
5'10", 195 lbs

Play Style:
Power

Ratings:
AWR 83, SPD 87, ACC 88, AGI 84, STR 97, STA 92, JKM 75, SFA 92, BTK 90, CTH 78, RTE 76, RLS 80, JMP 89, TAK 96, BSH 97, POW 98, CVR 85, OVR 87

Bio:
Vasquez plays the least out of everyone mentioned here, so his ratings more than anyone should be considered the least accurate. He does get props for playing LB in college, and for having a reputation as a hard hitter and very good overall player from high school, where my other friends played alongside him. In the limited amount of knowledge I have on Vasquez's pickup game, he has proven to certainly be a force defensively. Aggressive and surprisingly nimble, Vasquez can be a terror for ball carriers. Offensively, Vasquez's size helps him to shed tacklers, though the other facets of his game lack refinement.

Kevin "KayWhy" Young

Height/Weight:
5'9", 160 lbs

Play Style:
Technical

Ratings:
AWR 83, SPD 83, ACC 82, AGI 81, STR 85, STA 89, JKM 71, SFA 83, BTK 77, CTH 87, RTE 86, RLS 81, JMP 80, TAK 81, BSH 78, POW 72, CVR 81, OVR 82

Bio:
"KayWhy" prides himself on his heart and dedicated approach to the game. He doesn't possess any outstanding physical qualities, except possibly solid strength for his size, but that does not prevent him from making an impact, especially at receiver. Young excels at making precise cuts and creating separation from his man. While not a negative on defense, Young can occasionally find himself overwhelmed by some of the larger players in the group. Consistency is his game, and he shows it every time he steps on the field.

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