Wednesday, November 5, 2014

NBA Notebook - First Week Overreactions

I feel like you probably figured this out, but I threw out my old schedule of putting up a post every Friday for my CFB previews, every Monday for recaps, and every Wednesday for Fantasy Football posts. I did this for two reasons:
  1. Honestly, it was getting increasingly harder to come up with original things to say, especially with the CFB posts. Every week I was previewing the best games, but I realized that I was simply rehashing the same shit every week because the same teams were involved in each week's best matchups. How many times can I really gush over Auburn's offense, or football-catching robot Amari Cooper?
  2. College work is no joke. I found myself with less and less time each week to write on here because I had to devote more time to homework. Trust me, I'm not asking for your pity here, I just thought I'd be up-front with you.
From now on, I will simply write a post whenever I find a subject that moves me to record my thoughts on the topic to words. This should probably still occur a couple times a week, there just won't be any set posts for specific days. Whenever I see something worth writing about, I will do so. This way, you as the reader won't know what's coming next, and I can provide new content and not anything too similar to previous posts. I think this will be best for everyone. Onto the NBA.

There's something about the beginning of a new professional sports season that's hard to articulate. It's a time of hope, fear, anxiety, and joy. Above all, though, it's a time for massive overreactions. And man do I love overreacting! So, to commemorate the commencement of the 2014-2015 NBA season, I will run through some common (and not-so-common) overreactions to the events of the first week that sum up all the action that we've seen so far. Get ready to strongly disagree with me.

Perry Jones will be an All-Star this year
Full disclosure, I was fairly devastated when I heard Russell Westbrook went down with a fracture in his hand that will keep him out at least 6 weeks. However, I am not a Thunder fan, I am an NBA fan. Therefore, I immediately became super-intrigued as to what this OKC squad is going to look like without Westbrook and Durant for the months of November and December. Apparently, the Search and Rescue mission to locate Perry Jones was a success, as PJ3 (he was known as Perry Jones III, prized recruit, at Baylor the same year that Robert Griffin III blew up. Incredible coincidence) exploded for 32 in Westbrook's absence against the Clippers last Thursday. The very next game he poured in 23 more points, displaying the athleticism and versatility that made him such a hyped player coming out of high school. At 6'11", 235 lbs, Jones has a guard's skill set in a power forward's body; he can handle the rock, shoot the three (decently), run the floor, and finish around the rim.

How, you may ask, has Jones not been able to make an impact at all in his career before the Westbrook injury? Well, no one really knows for sure. At Baylor, Jones was given every opportunity to become a star, but his play revealed a guy who seemed content to be a complimentary player. While teammates like LaceDarius Dunn and Pierre Jackson seized the "lead dog" duties of Jones' Baylor squads, Jones rather quietly settled in as a solid, if unspectacular, 13 PPG second fiddle. He was never bad, in fact, Jones was arguably Baylor's most consistent player over his two seasons in Waco. He shot 50% from the field and grabbed over 7 boards a game both years.

"Solid" just wasn't what was expected of Jones. He was the #7 recruit in the Class of 2010, and his well-rounded game caused NBA scouts to salivate before he even stepped on a college court. ESPN's high school evaluation of Jones nailed it in their concerns for his inability to take over a game and his lack of a "killer instinct". Just look at some of the quotes from his final scouting report:

"...has off the charts talent and skill but his production is nowhere close to what it should be."

"Jones is a very unselfish player to a fault. He needs to play in attack mode more often in order to get the production he is capable of and the result will be more wins for his team."

"He can post, hit jumpers to the arc and pick and pop and make plays off the dribble with ease."

"He runs the floor with great speed and just wows you with some of the plays that he makes except these great plays are few and far between. Jones seems to be a great teammate and team player but he needs to demand the ball and dominate the game the way we have seen him do at times."

Every single word there perfectly describes Jones' game. Mesmerizing and frustrating at the same time. Jones is the complete package in terms of a young player who takes you on a roller-coaster ride in each of his games. All he needs is an attitude problem and he'd basically be Boogie Cousins. That's the problem though. I bet Scott Brooks would love for Jones to have a mean streak. At least you would know he's passionate about the game. The way he is now, you just have no idea whether or not he's putting in 100%, 70%, or even 40% effort every night.

I don't know if Jones' maturation would have happened this season regardless of the injuries to Westbrook and Durant, but his 71-point output in 3 games is certainly a notice to the NBA that the tantalizing prospect has officially arrived as a productive pro.

What's that? Jones left the Thunder's last game with a knee contusion? What the fuck?!?! Forget everything I've said then. Damn it Perry, you've drawn me in and left me hanging once again.

The Houston Rockets are going to win the West
With a somewhat surprising 5-0 start, the Rockets seem to be sending a message to the rest of the Western Conference that they are not just a one-round-and-done team. And why should they be? James Harden and Dwight Howard are two legitimate superstars. Last time I checked, that gets you pretty far in the National Basketball Association. The surrounding cast is impressive as well. Trevor Ariza is one of the best 3-and-D small forwards you're going to find around the league, Terrence Jones is emerging as an effective starting power forward, and Patrick Beverley continues to do Patrick Beverley things. As a team, Houston is averaging 105.6 PPG (5th in the league) compared to the 91.4 PPG they're allowing (3rd), for a point differential of +14.2 (2nd). Predictably, Harden is 4th in the NBA in PPG, Howard is 8th in RPG, and Ariza is capably filling Chandler Parsons' void by sinking 4.2 3-pointers per game thus far, best in the league. Throw in a young, talented bench that includes Europeans Donatas Motiejunas and Kostas Papanikolaou and former Murray State star Isaiah Canaan, as well as veterans like Francisco Garcia and Jason Terry, and I think the Spurs and Clippers should be downright terrified.

Of course, Houston's usual defensive troubles will probably keep them from reaching the Finals, right? We all know about Harden's "struggles" on that end of the floor. Only problem with that theory is that their other defensive liability, Chandler Parsons, is no longer on the team. He's been replaced with the afore-mentioned Ariza, who is rock-solid defensively. Beverley is a bulldog and absolute nightmare for opposing point guards, Howard is a 3-time Defensive Player of the Year Award winner, and Terrence Jones can also hold his own as long as he's not up against Lamarcus Aldridge (despite the headline of the article in that link, Aldridge did the majority of his damage in that playoff series when guarded by Jones, a slightly undersized power forward).

Wow, when you look at it like that, Houston almost seems, dare I say it, complete? An offensively gifted and defensively stout basketball team that has fully embraced the advanced metrics community by eliminating the mid-range jumper from their offense and sticking to 3's and layups? Sounds a lot like a certain franchise that is based out of the seventh most populous city in the United States. That's right, suddenly the Rockets have built a pretty convincing Spurs replica that really only lacks the pure, playmaking-point-guard abilities of one Tony Parker. Crafty Frenchmen like Parker don't grow on trees, however, so the Rockets will have to settle for what they have. And what they have is a dangerous team that will certainly threaten the West's elite squads come April and May.

Anthony Davis is the most terrifying basketball player in the NBA
Oh, wait, that's not an overreaction. That's just a fact. My bad, moving on.

Kobe Bryant will break the record for most Field Goals Attempts in a season...while the Lakers break the record for most Points Allowed in a season
Kobe Bryant is awesome. He's been in the NBA since I was born, thus Kobe getting buckets is all I've ever known in this world. Kobe is also an all-time great who will likely go down as the second greatest shooting guard of all time (I apologize to my friend George on that one).

That being said, I just flat-out feel bad for 2014 Mamba. The guy will always be a shoot-first, shoot-second player, but for the Lakers to put that team out there with Kobe, they are basically daring him NOT to break the all time record for shots taken in a season. Currently, that mark is held by Wilt Chamberlain with 3159 FGA. To surpass that number (which was achieved in 80 games), Kobe must average 38.5 field goals per game, in addition to play all 82 games.

So maybe this particular overreaction is also 100% impossible, but the point of it is valid. Kobe has no motivation to continue playing on a non-contender like he is besides collecting his $24 million for the season, and gunning for Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's all-time points record. As of Wednesday, Kobe is 6549 points away. To become the all-time leading scorer in the history of the NBA, Kobe would need to average 28 PPG for the next 3 seasons while only missing 2 games per year. Possible, but not probable. Still, while he's out there, the Mamba is going to chuck as much as he can, especially while SWAGGY P is out. As much as I love to watch Kobe take contested fadeaway 2's as the shot clock is expiring, this just isn't the way I pictured the final years of such a legendary career.

My Brooklyn Nets will finish top 3 in scoring and in Minutes Played by Europeans
Just kidding about the first part, but definitely not about the second. Currently, Mirza Teletovic, Bojan Bogdanovic, Sergey Karasev, and Andrei Kirilenko are playing a combined 60.3 minutes per game, which is likely top 5 in the league. Unfortunately I couldn't find the stat online to know for sure, and I wasn't about to do it myself. I did, however, find that the Spurs, unsurprisingly, receive almost double the minutes from Europeans than the Nets do (120.0 MPG). Their lead in this category likely won't be relinquished...unless there's an injury. And that's exactly what I'm counting on for the Nets to take the lead. Now, it's entirely possible that there are other teams averaging more than 60 EMPG (European minutes per game), but I expect the Nets' total to rise as the season goes on. Current Nets starting power forward Kevin Garnett could spontaneously disintegrate any moment now, which would thrust Teletovic into the starting lineup. Bogdanovic seems to have a firm grasp on his starting job, and it's only a matter of time before coach Lionel Hollins gives more minutes to the basketball savant known as Andrei Kirilenko.

I have to dedicate a mini-section to that Russian maniac, as he is easily my favorite player in this league to receive less than 10 minutes a game. Sitting at just 7.3 MPG so far this year, and only 19 in 45 games played last season, Kirilenko doesn't seem like a candidate to make a big impact on this Brooklyn squad. Thing is, though, is that every time Kirilenko checks into a basketball contest, amazing happens. I'm almost positive that's why "Where Amazing Happens" is the NBA's slogan. In 30 years, when Kirilenko finally retires after Mikhail Prokhorov chooses him as his co-pilot on his party spaceship to Jupiter, the league will be forced to change it to something like "Where Brian Scalabrine was the MVP of the 2008 Finals".

Back to Kirilenko, the guy is simply a joy to watch. Steals, blocks, great passes (did I mention great passes?); you name it, Kirilenko does it in the most Russian way possible. I would often get confused as to why Jason Kidd wouldn't give AK-47 more minutes last year, and unfortunately, Hollins is continuing that trend. Kirilenko, who's actually 33 years old (!), sometimes has a hard time staying healthy, which may be the reason for his minimal use. Regardless, I think he should be playing more, as it's a disservice to the basketball world having him on the bench. AK needs to be out there picking off passes, tossing no-look dimes, and flaunting that ghastly tattoo on his back and shoulders.

All in all, solid first week for the NBA. The Cavs showed they need some time to gel, the Splash Bros. are splashing away, and the Grizzlies already had one of their many signature Memphis Grindhouse wins. Obviously the Westbrook injury is devastating, as I naturally always want to see more stars healthy and playing than less. Get well soon to Russ West (as well as my man KD Trey 5). I look forward to more greatness from this great league that I love.

Greatness I expect to occur before my next NBA post:

  • Boogie Cousins wet-willies Nikola Pekovic, who then inexplicably pulls out a machete just as the refs arrive to break them up.
  • Phoenix wins a game against the Lakers 154-148 after unleashing Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, and Isaiah Thomas in their lethal three point guard set.
  • Javale McGee takes a nap at mid court.
  • Jason Kidd takes title of King of Irony after he empties an entire gallon of orange juice onto the court so he can bench O.J. Mayo immediately after he air balls a fadeaway 3 instead of passing to a wide-open Jabari Parker.
  • Kyrie Irving causes Professor Andre Miller Ph.D's ankles to explode from a simple crossover.
  • Professor Andre Miller Ph.D continues playing and finishes the game with 12 points and 8 assists.
  • Michael Jordan suits up for a Hornets-76ers game and dunks on Nerlens Noel, causing his flat-top to spontaneously deflate.
  • Boris Diaw suddenly retires from the NBA to own and operate his state-of-the-art French winery.
  • J.R. Smith is seen on the bench during a game drinking out of a mysterious styrofoam cup.
  • Drake will release a song with a Kyle Lowry-sung chorus.
  • Zach Lavine pulls off a backflip dunk on a fast break.
  • The 76ers still won't have a win.