Friday, August 29, 2014

Week 1 College Football Preview

Ever since now-Carolina Panther Kelvin Benjamin engulfed a 2 yard pass from Jameis Winston in the middle of the end zone with 13 seconds left in the 2014 BCS National Championship game, I've been anxiously awaiting the start of the 2014 season. Playoffs are here, which means there will never be any controversy ever again over who plays in the National Championship. In related news, Alabama's dynasty is over, you shouldn't expect any major contributions from any freshmen over at LSU, and Texas A&M is going to have a lot of trouble replacing Johnny Manziel.

Despite my overly-sarcastic remarks, the college football world is a better world with playoffs in it than without. From a purely college football fan-standpoint, there really isn't much downside to this new system. Worst-case scenario, we get an additional game for which we ceaselessly debate over the credibility of the teams playing. Putting aside the politics, I'm just glad my beloved college football has returned. And boy did it return. Every Friday during the season, I will write up my preview/big-game picks for the upcoming week, so obviously I will only be able to recap the weekly Thursday night games. As I alluded to above, Texas A&M is off to a great start to the post-Johnny Football era, because of course they are. How can you fail as a program when you have this in your arsenal? Their 52-28 steamrolling of South Carolina last night may have already proved to any remaining Kevin Sumlin critic that he is the engine driving A&M forward, and he could probably build an offense around Frank Underwood throwing the football and still win 9-10 games. That is not to take anything away from Kenny Hill, of course, our newest underclassman breakout star to hijack the college football headlines and Heisman Watch standings. His demolition of that South Carolina "defense" on opening night reminded many of a certain Florida State quarterback's debut against Pitt just last season. I seem to be meandering between extremes right now, so allow me to simply say that I begrudgingly accept from now on that nothing can stop this A&M momentum-train at the moment, and Kenny Hill is just the latest conductor to be given the keys from Sumlin.

Before I get to my picks for Saturday's games, just need to give a quick shoutout to my Temple Owls for their semi-stunning 37-7 victory over Vanderbilt in Nashville. I say "semi" because leading up to the game it seemed impossible that a 2-win Temple team from last year could defeat a 9-win SEC team...right up until about halfway through the first quarter when it was clear that the losses of James Franklin and Jordan Matthews has transformed Vanderbilt from "knocking on the door of the 2nd-class SEC teams" to "we're not even sure they can beat Kentucky at home." Nevertheless, a road win against ANY SEC team is something to be proud of, especially when trying to (re-?)build a winning culture. Without further ado, here are my thoughts on Week 1's slate of notable games.

12:00 PM - 5 Ohio State (-16) at Navy
Usually, a matchup like this wouldn't even be discussed, but with Braxton Miller out for the year after re-injuring his shoulder, this Ohio State offense is going to be under close scrutiny. Redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett takes over, and really the Buckeyes' talent will still overwhelm Navy in route to an unquestioned win. But just how dominant they look will be the main aspect of this game that will be monitored. How comfortable will Barrett look trying to replicate what Miller has meant to this offense the past three years? Will running back Ezekiel Elliott, with help from others, carry the offense instead while trying to fill the sizable shoes of Carlos Hyde? Can the lauded defensive line, featuring studs like Noah Spence and Joey Bosa, become the backbone of the entire team? These are the lingering questions worth taking note of while watching what should still be an easy win for Ohio State.

3:30 PM - West Virginia at 2 Alabama (-26)
While this game is certainly is not being treated like one to even keep an eye on, I believe that there are some intriguing story lines buried deep within the inevitable 'Bama blowout. First of all, the length of the leash given to QB Blake Sims will be a discussion topic among fans throughout the first couple of weeks. If Sims struggles at all, at what point does the call for Jacob Coker to take the reins become too loud for Saban to ignore? Obviously, either signal-caller will never face an opponent that is game-planning to stop the pass when they are much too occupied with tearing the hair out trying to corral the deadly duo of T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry. While Yeldon is a fantastic running back with a bright NFL future ahead of him, the Tide offense will only benefit by putting the ball in Henry's hands as much as possible throughout this season. At 6-3, 241 pounds, Henry brings a power-speed-vision combo that is virtually unrivaled by any ball-carrier in college football this season. If new OC Lane Kiffin wants to make a splash in his debut, he would be wise to let Henry loose on an inexperienced Mountaineers defense.

5:30 PM - 16 Clemson at 12 Georgia (-8)
Full disclosure, I love following the recruiting aspect of college football. I spend an inordinate amount of time researching the top recruits in the country each year so that I have a jump on the average college football fan in knowing who are the game's future stars. I've known the name Jameis Winston since 2011, and was not surprised whatsoever in his explosion last year. I am confident that LSU will be able to reload in a big way despite losing gobs of talent to the NFL after signing yet another talented class. And finally, I believe Clemson is making a big mistake in handing the headset and clipboard to redshirt freshman quarterback Deshaun Watson for their first game at Georgia. Watson was the consensus #1 QB of the class of 2013, and the hype that surrounded him as he lit up every camp he attended nearly reached the level of Winston a year earlier. That type of talent level, combined with the recent trend of redshirt freshman QB's taking over after highly successful predecessors and winning the Heisman, should translate to college football's next breakout star. There are reports claiming that Watson will have some type of role for the Tigers tomorrow, but if coach Dabo Swinney is essentially conceding that current starter Cole Stoudt can't get the job done by himself, then why not simply replace Stoudt with Watson altogether? Putting the offense on Watson's shoulders, however, nowhere near guarantees a victory for Clemson. Georgia's front seven is loaded, and should be flustering both quarterbacks all game long. Additionally, Gurshall (the punishing RB tandem of Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall) will most likely carve up Clemson's defense, as well as every other team they play this season. I like Georgia to take the whole SEC East this year anyway, so Clemson's QB decision might just only mean the difference between a close or dominating victory for the Bulldogs.

8:00 PM - 1 Florida State (-19) at Oklahoma State
Now defending a Heisman trophy and a national championship, Mr. Winston makes his long-awaited return to the field following a turbulent offseason. This sounds like the much-repeated narrative heading into FSU's first game of the 2014 season. As much as I can't wait to watch Winston dazzle once again, there will be three other aspects of this game that I will be paying very close attention to. First, Karlos Williams is taking over as the lead dog in the Seminole backfield. Williams, who arrived at Tallahassee as a top-10 recruit AT SAFETY, averaged over eight yards-per-carry last year while emerging as a highly dependable goal-line back. I am extremely interested in how often Jimbo Fisher reaches into his stable of former blue-chip running backs, including true freshman Dalvin Cook, to provide a change-of-pace from the bruising Williams. Secondly, sophomores will be a huge part of this Florida State defense, as linebacker Matthew Thomas, cornerback/safety Jalen Ramsey, and sophomore pass rusher Demarcus Walker are all expected to become major contributors as they take over for departed players. Thomas must replace the consistency of current Jacksonville Jaguar linebacker Telvin Smith, Ramsey will be called upon to showcase the big-play ability that made Lamarcus Joyner a star last year, and Walker must stabilize the pass rush as Mario Edwards moves inside to replace Timmy Jernigan. Lastly, I will be keeping my eyes glued to #24...on Oklahoma State. That's right, a little Cowboy love! I, along with basically every college football expert, am expecting highlight-reel plays from top junior college transfer Tyreek Hill every time he touches the football. Being employed in a Tavon Austin-esque role, we should be seeing Hill taking carries out of the backfield as well as catching passes out wide. Florida State may have their hands full trying to contain Hill, who very well may end up as this year's De'Anthony Thomas-Dri Archer-Venric Mark type of player who emerges as a game changer for his squad as a running back, receiver, and returner. Unfortunately, Hill will not be enough to prevent Oklahoma State from being yet another opponent that Jameis picks apart with ease. This will be a crab-I mean cakewalk, for the defending champs.

9:00 PM - 14 Wisconsin at 13 LSU (-6)
For those old-school football fans who get nauseated at the sight of 60 and 56 pass attempts by Kenny Hill and Connor Halliday of Washington State respectively, and yearn for the days of power football, then this is your kind of game. Wisconsin and LSU feature two of the most ground-based offenses in the country, with running backs at the helm that are true phenoms. For the Badgers, junior Melvin Gordon is one of the rare running backs with a shot to be a 1st round pick in the 2015 NFL draft. Gordon, standing 6-1, 207, is a classic three-down back who possesses great top-end speed, excellent vision, and the production to match (1,609 rushing yards last season, second in the Big Ten). Wearing purple and gold is the previously mentioned Leonard Fournette, he of the Adrian Peterson and Michael Jordan comparisons. Fournette, a true freshman and the #1 overall player in the 2014 ESPN 300, has been the source of more buzz than a bee hive this summer as all who witness him practice are left in awe of his natural ability. Of course, very few teams utilize only one running back nowadays, and it is no different with Wisconsin and LSU. Corey Clement, Gordon's backup, put together an extremely impressive season in 2013 considering he was the 3rd-string behind Gordon and James White, amassing 547 yards and 7 TD's on only 67 carries, good for a 8.2 YPC. Sharing the LSU backfield with Fournette are Terrence Magee and Kenny Hilliard, who both were part of a committee last year with Jeremy Hill and Alfred Blue, both now in the NFL. Because it is 2014, though, this game will end up being decided by quarterback play, especially given the inexperience for both squads. Tanner McEvoy is making his starting debut for Wisconsin after transferring from a junior college prior to last season, while Anthony Jennings of LSU was forced into action last year following Zach Mettenberger's torn ACL. Neither is expected to shoulder anything close to a large burden in their offenses, and whichever one makes more mistakes is likely to be the quarterback of the losing team. With that in mind, I give the slight edge to LSU, as Jennings knows his role and has been prepared to operate in a game-manager role since he took over as starter a season ago.

One last game I have to mention: North Texas at Texas. David Ash, please stay healthy. Johnathan Gray, please look recovered from your torn Achilles. And Charlie Strong, please don't let us down. Hook 'em Horns

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