Friday, September 19, 2014

Week 4 College Football Preview

Ah, college football. Free from all the domestic violence issues of its big brother, the NFL, my beloved college game will never be overrun by the shameful crimes of certain, unnamed "professionals".

What's that? There's college football players who are punching women out? Damn it, come on guys! You're supposed to be better than that! After all, you are a bunch of 18-22 year old males at major universities making most of your decisions while downing bottles of Ciroc paid for by boosters.

And here I was thinking the only thing the NCAA had to deal with was Heisman winners yelling extremely funny phrases around campus. My bad.

With the obligatory Jameis mention out of the way, I have to spend just a little bit of time on the Auburn-Kansas State game that preceded this post. Usually, Thursday night games in college are reserved for a random top 25 team playing some middle-of-the-pack conference opponent, but this past Thursday brought us an extremely intriguing ranked matchup as the defending SEC champion Auburn Tigers traveled to the Little Apple to face off against the perennially underrated Wildcats, led by their soon-to-be Hall of Fame coach Bill Snyder. Nick Marshall is at the helm of another dynamic Auburn rushing attack, while Kansas State's Jake Waters and Tyler Lockett are one of the best QB-WR tandems in the country. Uncharacteristically of him, however, Lockett let a ball go right through his hands in the end zone and into the arms of an Auburn defender. Although it's not like this play decided the game (it happened in the first quarter), mistakes like that just can't happen if you wish to beat Auburn. Especially when said Auburn team has WR D'haquille "Duke" Williams, who is drawing comparisons to Cordarrelle Patterson due to his JUCO roots and undeniable awesomeness. Standing 6-2 and 217 pounds, Williams is your classic tall, strong, explosive #1 WR that should be hearing his name called in the 1st round of either the 2015 or 2016 NFL Draft. Anyway, Auburn escaped Manhattan with a W, and that's all that really matters. Good win for the Tigers, good effort by the Wildcats.

3:30 PM ET - 6 Texas A&M (-35) at SMU
Why in the world am I even discussing a game that is giving a home underdog 35 points? 2 reasons really. First of all, Kenny Trill and A&M are involved, and, as much as I hate to admit it, these guys are absolutely must-see TV right now. Freshmen phenoms are all over the place for the Aggies, as 3 former 5-star recruits (Ricky Seals-Jones, Speedy Noil, and Myles Garrett) are making huge impacts on both sides of the ball. Seals-Jones and Noil have become a scary combo, with Noil's game-breaking speed serving as the perfect compliment to Seals-Jones' monster 6-5, 230 pound frame. Meanwhile, all Garrett has done is tied A&M's freshman sack record of 5.5 through only 3 games. Calling him a beast just seems like the understatement of the year (besides "Roger Goodell is a bad commissioner"). The second reason this game is noteworthy is because it will be the Mustangs' first game since coach June Jones resigned. Jones, who was the subject of an exceptional column by Chris B. Brown of Grantland.com, was highly respected throughout college football for leading the resurgence of both the Hawaii and SMU football programs. At Hawaii, he helped Colt Brennan become the holder of several NCAA records. Jones also led SMU to its first winning season in 2 decades in just his second season there. After a nightmarish start to the 2014 season (SMU has been outscored 88-6 in its first 2 games), Jones stepped down, citing "personal issues". Can SMU pull of an upset for the ages in honor of its departed coach? No, not a chance in hell. In fact, just covering the spread would be a huge moral victory for the Mustangs. Sorry, but A&M just doesn't give a shit about sentimental stuff like that, Mr. Trill throws for 300 yards and 4 touchdowns with more ease than the Falcons beating the Buccaneers on Thursday night. Expect more gaudy numbers from all the guys I talked about above, as well as others like Malcome Kennedy and Trey Williams.

3:30 PM ET - Florida at 3 Alabama (-15)
5 years ago, this is like the biggest matchup of the entire year. Now it's just another talented but overmatched SEC team that Bama will run through. Or is it? Eh, the best answer is "probably". Make no mistake about it, Florida fields a team that, based on ability, is easily top-15. Things just haven't quite come together for Will Muschamp's squad the past 2 years. Speaking of Muschamp, what's up with all the anger? Not even Frank Martin ever frowned that intensely, and he invented the hilariously terrifying tirade. Nevermind about that, back to football. 9th-year QB Jeff Driskel has been solid for Florida, who, of course, has leaned on their rushing game thus far in 2014. Matt Jones and Kelvin Taylor are a very productive 1-2 punch in the backfield, combining for 353 yards on 60 carries in the Gator's first 2 games. The Gators' biggest offensive weapon, though, has to be WR Demarcus Robinson. The #53 overall recruit in the Class of 2013, Robinson has emerged as Florida's top playmaker on the outside, putting up 21 catches for 339 yards and 3 TD's. All of this Florida hype adds up to the Gators...still losing to the Tide by double-digits. You know it's true. Despite Florida seeming to have improved from last year (although it was hard not to), Alabama has Amari Cooper, so they will win the football game. Cooper is simply the most dominant wide receiver in the country right now, and defenses still have to deal with RB's T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry. I just don't see Florida's unproven defense stopping that, or even slowing it down much. Bama will roll...tide.

7:00 PM ET - Mississippi St. at 8 LSU (-8)
Dak Prescott will most likely have to turn in the best game of his career to take down the Tigers in Death Valley, but you know what? What's stopping him from doing just that? Prescott is off to a great start to the season, throwing for 9 touchdowns and adding 2 more on the ground, along with nearly 1,000 total yards. On the other side of the ball, the Bulldog defense must be the Bulldog defense that stifled Southern Miss and South Alabama, and not the one that allowed UAB to drop 34 points on them. If both phases can come together for head coach Dan Mullen, LSU should be on upset watch. The only problem is, it's going to be VERY difficult for the Bulldogs to truly achieve the type of success needed to beat LSU at home. Although Mississippi State's run defense has been very good this year, Leonard Fournette still has not had his breakout game yet. You know it's coming any week now. Add that to LSU's defense giving up a paltry 8.0 points per game on the year, and all the optimism I just instilled to all you Bulldog fans out there might end up being for naught. I expect LSU's secondary, led by CB Jalen Mills, to force some turnovers, while big-play specialist Travin Dural notches himself another long score. This one should be competitive, but I don't see the Mad Hatter dropping an important home game as he eyes a playoff appearance.

8:00 PM ET - Miami at 24 Nebraska (-8)
If only the U didn't fall to Louisville week 1, this could have really been a matchup of great importance. Instead, we get Nebraska simply looking to stay undefeated for 2 more weeks until they likely get trounced by Sparty in Lansing. I'm going to say Miami needs this win more, as going into ACC play with 2 losses just doesn't carry the type of momentum the Hurricanes want. To accomplish this, true freshman signal-caller Brad Kaaya just can't lose the game for Miami, and instead hope that the sensational Duke Johnson can finally return to his pre-injury form and carry the Hurricanes on his diminutive back. Johnson does have help on the offense, though, in the form of fellow RB Joseph Yearby, another true freshman. Yearby, the #23 overall recruit of this past class, is another undersized but dynamic weapon that, when teamed with Duke, form a tantalizing duo of speed and home-run ability. Phillip Dorsett, who reportedly has an average 40 yard dash time of 4.21, leads the receiving corps with 284 yards and 4 TD's, while also sporting an other-worldy 35.5 yards per reception. Obviously, he won't be able to sustain an average like that, but it sure does demonstrate his status as yet another Miami player who is capable of turning any play into 6 points. All these offensive playmakers won't really make a difference, though, if the Hurricane defense isn't able to corral the frightening Nebraksa ground game led by QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. and tailback Ameer Abdullah. The Huskers currently are 8th in the nation in rushing yards per game, as Armstrong and Abdullah have pretty much run wild over everyone they have faced so far. My gut feeling tells me their effectiveness running the football does not stop against Miami, and the Nebraska defense doesn't let Duke take over the game for Miami. Nebraska takes it, although Miami keeps it a one-possession game.

8:00 PM ET - 22 Clemson at 1 Florida State (-14)
What, you thought we were done talking about him? Come on, you must not know me well enough then. As you are probably well aware of, Winston is suspended for this first half of FSU's annual monumental clash against the Clemson Tigers. Usually the game that decides which team represents the ACC Atlantic in the conference championship game, there is an extra level of intensity that is exhibited by the young men on each team in this game every year. In 2013, Jameis and the Seminoles flat out steamrolled the Tigers 51-14 as the redshirt freshman's simply couldn't be stopped on his way to the Heisman trophy. This time around, Sean Maguire will be making his first career start and, for 30 minutes, will have to avoid soiling himself as he runs for his life from star pass rusher Vic Beasley. Fortunately for Maguire, he has plenty of talent around him to take the take the pressure off his shoulders. The Seminoles' embarrassment of riches at the running back position is almost laughable, as they can trot out Karlos Williams, Mario Pender, Ryan Green, or highly touted true freshman Dalvin Cook and have an above-average runner carrying the football no matter what. Make no mistake about it, though, this game will be decided when Jameis makes his return to the game in the second half. Even if they aren't holding a lead at halftime, FSU should only be trailing by one possession, which is basically like a lead when Jameis is at the helm of the Seminole offense. Clemson has a good chance of keeping pace with FSU offensively, as redshirt freshman Deshaun Watson, as I predicted prior to the season, will receive the keys from Dabo Swinney and should proceed to strike some fear Jalen Ramsey, P.J. Williams, and the rest of that athletic secondary that Cole Stoudt would not have. Personally, I am beyond excited to watch this game unfold. It is certainly set up for Jameis to lead some type of miraculous 2nd half comeback as Watson struggles to pull of his best Winston impression, but this scenario is far from guaranteed. Clemson running backs Wayne Gallman and Adam Choice are no slouches and should put some pressure on FSU's front seven. No matter how much I look at Clemson and see a team capable of knocking the Seminoles off the perch they've held for almost an entire calendar year now, I just can't bring myself to picking against my man Jaboo. #GoNoles

(12:35 A.M. Saturday) Update: Jameis Winston is now suspended for the entire game against Clemson. This certainly makes things a lot more interesting, and could possibly tilt the game in Clemson's favor. Of course, it's not like Sean Maguire, Winston's replacement, is guaranteed to struggle. You still have to have plenty of talent to be the backup QB on Florida State. That being said, I don't think we should be expecting any type of Seth Russell-type shit in Tallahassee Saturday night. If the Seminoles wish to still claim victory despite the absence of their leader, the running game and defense must bring their A-game. Expect Vic Beasley and the Clemson front seven to be ultra-aggressive as they try to fluster Maguire and force him into committing mistakes/turnovers.

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