Usually, I put out my Stars and Stripes NFL post every Tuesday. That didn't exactly happen this week. Blame it on college work piling up and Parks and Recreation being so damn addictive.
Anyway, I've decided against writing a Week 4 recap on a Wednesday afternoon when the last game from the previous week ended over 18 hours ago as you most likely have already read your fill of Week 4 recap articles elsewhere on the Internet. Instead, I present to you a purely fantasy football column, where I discuss the best/worst match-ups, top sleeper performances, and other categories like those in a given week. I'm not sure if I'm going to start doing this every Wednesday, I guess that depends on how well this goes. I'm making up the format as I go, so if there's anything you want added, let me know.
I don't have any type of metric in front of me that quantifies whether or not an opponent is strong or weak against a certain position, but I do have basic fantasy point totals and my opinions. That should be enough, right? Right. Now, here are some notable players at various positions who you should keep an eye on for the positive and negative reasons that I will list.
(NOTE: For both my plus and minus-rated match-ups, I will not be including obvious, every week starters or obvious, every week waiver wire garbage. Only guys who could at least somewhat make sense being either in a starting lineup or on a bench depending on the matchup):
Quarterbacks
Plus-Rated Plays
Ben Roethlisberger (averaging 22.07 SP Per Game): Easy choice here. Big Ben has a dream matchup against the Jaguars this week, and he's coming off an impressive outing against the Bucs in Week 4. His top target, Antonio Brown, is currently the #1 fantasy WR (92.05 SP), and secondary weapons like Heath Miller and Markus Wheaton provide solid options as well. And, of course, Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell is drawing comparisons to Eddie George and receiving high praise from future Hall of Fame RB LaDainian Tomlinson. Jacksonville will most likely stack the box in an attempt to slow down Pittsburgh's running game, but honestly that will probably fail. Regardless, this should leave plenty of room all over the field for Big Ben to rack up plenty of points for your fantasy squads.
Nick Foles (avg. 23.29 SPPG): Although there are probably 10-12 QB's I'd start over Foles right now, this is more for those of you who possibly have Brady, Romo, or Kaep as your current starter. All 3 of those guys are becoming less and less credible as sure-fire starting fantasy quarterbacks, and none of them have exactly easy match-ups this week. That's why I recommend sliding Foles into your QB slot, as the St. Louis secondary has been fairly leaky thus far in 2014 (. Aside from Janoris Jenkins, an above-average corner, though not exactly shutdown either, there really aren't any cover men on the Rams that should scare you. Foles certainly hasn't picked up where he left off in 2013, as he has been overthrowing receivers and tossing picks far more often than he did in his magical, abridged season a year ago. Still, Foles is currently 13th among QB's who have started at least 3 games in 2014, and the Eagles will be passing plenty since their depleted offensive line can't seem to create any push for Shady McCoy in the running game. If you don't own a top-6 quarterback, start Foles with a fair amount of confidence this week.
Minus-Rated Plays
Tom Brady (avg. 14.79 SPPG): It has finally arrived. The clear demise of the Golden Boy. Brady has looked pretty shitty so far this season, and even late last year. Most Brady owners have already begun their search for his replacement. If you're not one of them, I recommend at least sitting him for just one week before giving him another chance. Brady goes up against quite possibly the best defense in the league right now, the Cincinnati Bengals. And the Bengals' secondary is STACKED. Leon Hall, Terrance Newman, Darqueze Dennard, Adam "Pacman" Jones, Reggie Nelson, and George Iloka are easily the most feared DB's west of Seattle in the entire league. The Bengals have given up only 2 passing touchdowns in 3 games this season, fewest in the league, and have picked off 6 passes, good for 2nd in the NFL. Simply put, Brady is not getting back on track this Sunday.
Andy Dalton (avg. 22.20 SPPG): Yeah, I'm pretty much saying there won't be much efficient passing going on in this game. But for good reason, as the Pats are allowing the fewest passing yards per game at just 185.5. Darrelle Revis has clearly made quite an impact on New England's pass defense, and fellow offseason addition Brandon Browner, formerly the 4th member of the LOB, returns this week after serving a 4-game suspension. For all the struggles the Patriots are experiencing on offense, they have been playing some real good defense in 2014. Well, besides that disaster at Arrowhead, which was amazing to watch as a Bills fan who has lived his whole life disturbingly jealous of the Patriots. Chiefs game aside, Pats D = bad game for opposing QB. Leave Dalton on your bench.
Running Backs
Plus-Rated Plays
Rashad Jennings (avg. 15.20 SPPG): After Jennings' explosion in Week 3, he firmly cemented himself as a high-end RB2 in any league, PPR or not. Week 4 saw Jennings turn in a rather disappointing performance, but that should all change against Atlanta's pushover run defense. Just last week, the Falcons let the plodding Matt Asiata and the electrifying, but extremely inexperienced, Jerick McKinnon run all over them to the tune of 213 rushing yards between the two. Jennings should feast on a defense that generous, especially given how many carries he is receiving. A 125-yard, 1-2 TD outing is definitely in the realm of possibility.
Andre Ellington (avg. 9.37 SPPG): Along with Vikings WR Cordarrelle Patterson, no one receive more preseason fantasy hype than Andre Ellington. I was one of many who built him up to Olympian heights in anticipation of some monumental breakout season. I'm still convinced it's going to happen, it just hasn't yet. Ellington has been playing through a leg injury, limiting his effectiveness carrying the ball and running routes out of the backfield. Coming off a bye and facing the Broncos this week, I'm feeling that same giddy sensation that overtook me and plenty of others who watched Ellington highlights from last year and projected that to this season when given more carries. Denver has seen Knile Davis and Marshawn Lynch tear through their defense in their last two games, so just imagine what a more explosive back like Ellington can do, especially now that he had an extra week to heal up. Expect big things out of the little guy in Week 5.
Minus-Rated Play
Alfred Morris (avg. 13.45 SPPG): You're probably going to still start him if you have him, but don't expect much. Morris is a high-volume back who usually hovers in the high-4's in terms of YPC. This usually makes up the components of a reliable fantasy back. Well, his 3-catch performance last week aside, Morris is an absolute zero in the passing game and not a guarantee to score even when his team gets in the red zone. Against Seattle's front seven (can't forget about Kam Chancellor too), Morris may find himself working with very little running room. Compound that with star LT Trent Williams being banged up if he does indeed suit up for the game, and Morris owners should begin preparing for a single-digit game if they decide to stick with him.
Wide Receivers
Plus-Rated Play
Reggie Wayne & T.Y. Hilton (avg. 12.05 & 10.15 SPPG): Aside from being fortunate enough to have the ball thrown to them by the immortal Andrew Luck, these two WR's should be the featured stars in a potential shootout with the Baltimore Ravens. Steve Smith and Reggie Wanye will be competing for the title of "best old wide receiver in the NFL" while Torrey Smith and T.Y. Hilton compete for the title of "most dynamic young wide receiver ignored by their own team in favor of a past-his-prime veteran". Really, I like all the wideouts in this game to put up some big numbers. I'm more fond of the Indy duo, however, because Luck is just on a different level right now and the Colts truly have no running game whatsoever. At least the Ravens are getting decent production from a couple no-name backs. T-Rich is still hitting holes slower than it takes Big Papi to round the bases following a home run, and Ahmad Bradshaw's feet/ankles disintegrate a little more with each passing day. Start either of the above WR's as strong WR3 plays with WR2 upside.
Minus-Rated Play
Wes Welker (9.00 SP in 1 game this season): I'm just not convinced the concussion issues have 100% gone away. Also, has anyone considered that the best white WR of the last decade is finally declining physically? Maybe we have just finally reached the point where even that glorious route-running ability of his can't make up for the significant loss of burst and acceleration? It's not really clear whether that is the case or not yet, but Week 5 won't help in determining the answer. Welker should see plenty of the Honey Badger, who is still recovering from knee surgery. 85-90% Honey Badger is still a problem for Wes, as Mathieu is a stud in terms of covering the slot. Also, I see Peyton sticking to his relentless targeting of his top 3 weapons, the Terrifying Thomas Towers and Emmanuel Sanders. Don't feel compelled to start Welker because of the big-name recognition thing. Wes still has a nose for the end zone, but aside from the possible score, I don't feel a big reception/yards game coming his way this week.
Was it just me or did this post not really work for you? Well, at least I gave it a shot. It wouldn't be the first idea I scrapped, just the first one I published after deciding it won't stick. Next week I'm back to my Tuesday recaps, only more fantasy sprinkled in. Oh, and apologies to anyone who was upset at the absence of a Week 5 College Football Shoutouts post. I hope my Week 6 preview makes up for it. I believe it will, BIG week ahead in the world of collegiate football. Get. Hyped.
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