I will fully admit this, and I'm truly disappointed in myself. It's not like I didn't have anything to write about or I wasn't interested; this past week of college football was insane and there was plenty to discuss from Week 5 in the NFL (including my Bills winning on a Dan Carpenter 58-yard GW FG! Had to throw that in there). There's no excuse for my inactivity, except for maybe that college work and college laziness are piling up.
Let's put that all in the past and look to the future, shall we? Last week, I tried out an all-fantasy football post, and it failed miserably. Well, not miserably; it at least performed better than my Alfred Morris All-Stars college football post (really thought that was an innovative idea. I don't quite know why it flopped like it did). So this week, because it is once again a Wednesday, and no one wants to hear about last week on a Wednesday, I will attempt to re-work my fantasy football post format in hopes something worth reading will rise from the ashes. Basically, this post is like a phoenix.
To change things up a bit, I will be implementing an idea that is relevant to the state of fantasy football right now. By Week 6, fantasy owners have at least a solid idea of who each player on their team is, how effective they have been, and how effective they will be moving forward. You have probably been involved in some trade talks, made an impact pickup or two, and finally benched/dropped an underwhelming top draft pick by now as well.
In my opinion, Week 6 is the first of two turning points during the fantasy season (the other is week 11). If you're 3+ games over or under .500, it's less of a monumental week for you. If you're 1-4 or 0-5, you have to start winning NOW. If you're sitting pretty at 4-1 or 5-0, an L this week won't kill you. I'm talking to those 2-3 and 3-2 squads. Those middle-of-the-pack guys. You know who you are. Week 6 is pretty pivotal for you guys. 2-3 teams make their lives a whole lot more difficult if they drop to 2-4, and 4-2 is a welcomed sight to any 3-2 team as opposed to falling back to .500. All this is why making the right moves is essential when shaping your team for the stretch run. By this point, a "good" draft means nothing. This is where real fantasy skills come into play. This is where the men are separated from the boys.
To assist all those out there seeking guidance on how to position themselves for a playoff run, I got you covered. The most important piece of business that owners must consider, and therefore what I will cover in this post, is to address all these pesky injured running backs. We all have at least one by now. Whether you're an owner of Mark Ingram, Ryan Mathews, Rashad Jennings, Montee Ball, or anyone RB that wears a Carolina Panthers uniform, you have been burned by some form of a banged-up ball-carrier. Not coincidentally, names like Andre Williams, Branden Oliver, Ronnie Hillman, and even Benny Cunningham have been among the hottest wavier-wire pickups of the last couple days.
Ball's injury is the only one that looks to be serious, but Denver is also the team most likely to replace him by using a committee. Hillman, Juwan Thompson, and C.J. Anderson all figure to get some looks taking handoffs from Peyton in the coming weeks. As for Jennings and Mathews, a safe assumption is that both will miss Weeks 6 and 7, meaning Williams and Oliver are only premium, locked-in starters for two games. Do not be scared off by this, getting two weeks of RB2-level production from a waiver pickup is extremely valuable, even if the value is short-lived. Two weeks can make a season, any means to acquire a win should be taken seriously.
Now there's the matter of nicked-up RB's who seem likely to play, but the extent of their effectiveness is highly in question. Players that fall under this category for Week 6 are Zac Stacy, Jonathan Stewart, and Reggie Bush. All three are driving fantasy owners crazy by causing second-guessing and uncertainty as they are trying to make roster decisions.
Stacy has managed to hold off COP back Benny Cunningham by simply being better this season, as Stacy's 4.3 YPC trumped Cunningham's 3.3 entering the Rams' Week 5 game. Once Stacy left with a strained calf, Cunningham took advantage by posting 71 yards and a touchdown. Although Stacy will most likely play this week against the 49ers, the combination of the brutal matchup and the strong possibility that Cunningham will eat into his carries makes me suggest to sit Stacy this week if your roster permits it.
Stewart, along with three-headed monster members DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert, predictably got hurt earlier this year right when he was expected to carry the load of a struggling backfield. Well, he very well could return to the lineup this week against the Bengals, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Darrin Reaves-Chris Ogbonnaya tandem will not prevent Stewart from seeing the field if he's healthy (enough). This may finally be the time where Stewart gets the carries he needs to blossom into at least FLEX-worthy back that doesn't rely on a TD to give owners a decent outing. Williams is not expected to suit up, and Tolbert is still on the IR-designated to return list. Cincinnati is 31st in run defense DVOA. Stewart figures to get a large amount of carries. I don't think I have to spell it out anymore for you. Stewart active = fantasy points (I decided to spell it out more).
One of fantasy's more frustrating backs this year, Reggie Bush had a prime opportunity to makes his owners happy last week as he took over a backfield down both Joique Bell and Theo Riddick. Only problem was every time he received a handoff, he would just run right into the brick wall that is the Buffalo Bills run defense, ranked #2 in the NFL if you refer to that handy chart from that last link. Adding insult to injury (or injury to insult really), Bush suffered a sprained ankle in the game, leaving the Lions with just one healthy running back: George Winn. Bush is reportedly "day-to-day" as of now, and should at least be active come Sunday. Bush has a dream matchup against the Vikings this week, the same Vikings that saw Eddie Lacy bust out for 105 yards and 2 TD's, as well as destroy safety Robert Blanton's entire life, on just 13 carries last Thursday . Yeah, I'd say insert Bush into your starting lineup with a fair amount of confidence as long as he's playing.
For those of you who don't own any of these guys or are not mightily affected by the rash of running back injuries, then lucky you! No, but seriously, I have a little something for you guys as well: Buy-low and sell-high candidates! Exciting, right? Well, sound advice on trade targets is exciting to me. Here are the guys you should be sending out offers for while their price tags are still cheap, as well as the players on your roster that could fetch a nice return while their stock is high:
Buy-Low
T.Y. Hilton - Seek out your league Hilton owners and gauge their frustration level with his zero touchdowns so far this season. While not exactly a red zone beast anyway, Hilton has also only produced one 100-yard game this season, a petty stat considering he's Andrew Luck's #1 receiver. Say your league Hilton owner is dealing with an injury to one of his running backs and is offering up Hilton for an RB, and you're set at the position but need a receiver, flood that person with some trade proposals. The Colts offense is airing it out as much as it ever has over the past 3 seasons, and it's not like T.Y. isn't having the ball come his way. He has double-digit targets in 4 out of 5 games, and his Week 5 9-catch total certainly made PPR leaguers take notice. The touchdowns should come too, maybe not rapidly by any means, but I expect Hilton to still finish the season with about 5-6.
Jordan Reed - It's very possible I just love him too much, but Jordan Reed is the ultimate buy-low target in my opinion. Reed has been hurt since he strained his hamstring attempting a hurdle after hauling in his first catch of the season in the first game of the year. Since then, he has been sideline, which has given way to Niles Paul's emergence. Paul will without a doubt return to the sidelines if Reed is active this week, which is a fairly decent possibility. The-man-with-two-first-names struggled quite noticeably with run blocking in Washington's Monday Night loss to the Seahawks, and Reed is simply more dynamic than Paul when healthy. Reed is available in 48% of Yahoo leagues, and 49% of ESPN leagues, meaning you can "buy" him for free. If a Reed owner has stuck with him and not dropped him yet, he probably won't cave and trade him now. That is, unless, he also is experiencing RB issues (see, it all goes back to these damn RB injuries). In that case, you should be able to ship over a low-end FLEX-caliber RB for Reed, a TE1 for the rest of the season. Gotta love buying low.
Sell-High
Larry Donnell - After his 0-catch performance in Week 5, you wouldn't exactly be trading Donnell as high as he would have been the previous week, but there is still plenty of value attached to him. His inclusion on this list isn't even that much an overreaction to that dud against the Eagles. It's more an endorsement of Odell Beckham Jr. You see, Beckham is the Giants 1st-round pick from this past draft, and he just made a pretty sparkling 2014 debut on Sunday. Teaming with Victor Cruz and Reuben Randle, Beckham becomes the third cog in a pretty formidable 3-WR set for the G-Men. The Giants are among the league leaders in snaps with 3 WR's on the field, so expect the Giants to feed a player they have invested heavily in over an undrafted tight end who essentially won the starting job by default in the preseason. Donnell's 3 TD performance two weeks ago should be fresh enough in people's minds that you can convince prospective trade partners that they will be receiving TE1 production.
Philip Rivers - Obviously, you would only be selling Rivers at all if you drafted him as a backup and your starter is producing at top-10 levels as well. If you are in this situation, then there really isn't anyone who could be sold higher right now. Rivers is a legitimate MVP candidate, pilots a pass-orientated offense, and plays the highly susceptible Raiders defense twice from now until the end of the season, with the first of his match-ups against Oakland being this week. Trade partners should be fairly easy to find, simply look for owners about ready to give up on Tom Brady (despite his game against the Bengals) or Cam Newton. A demand for a RB2 and WR2/3 is a reasonable return that you could see should you part ways with the King of Bolo Ties.
Finally, the best advice I can give you: Don't make trades just because other people are and you think you should make one too. Trades should only occur if you have a clear need, and find someone else in your league who possesses a player who can fill that need for a fair price. Sometimes, the best remedy for a struggling team is just a reshuffling of the starting lineup and a week of good fortune. Good luck to all fantasy owners for Week 6, and remember: You're only having fun if you're winning.
SP Football standings through Week 5:
- What are the chances - 4-1
- Notorious M.A.F.I.A. - 4-1
- Marks Marauders - 3-2
- Scooby Doos - 3-2
- The Uncle Ricos - 3-2
- Krazy Kevs - 2-3
- TuckerRightInThePusy - 2-3
- #SantiniCrimeFamily - 2-3
- 10 AM in Philly - 1-4
- The DOMinators - 1-4
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