I'M BAAAAACK.
After failing to provide my picks for last week's games, I'm chomping at the bit to return to my beloved college game. Of course, this adds extra pressure now on this week's picks to be on point. Truthfully, I have no idea how I'm even doing this year in terms of a win/loss record. I never bothered to keep track after the first couple weeks, and I'm not going to start now. Regardless, I usually have an idea of which games I pick each week and who I have in each of them. Let's just say I'm .500 and call it even.
I'm not going to go into length at all about the mega-matchup of Notre Dame-Florida State because, well, everyone else is. It deserves all the attention it has received in the days leading up to it, but I just don't believe I will be telling you anything you haven't already heard. Might as well throw out my prediction though: FSU 34, ND 21.
If you peruse the box scores of Division II/III, FCS, or even some low FBS teams, you will final scores that reach a total of 110-120 points almost every week. The defenses of those teams just can't handle the handful of offensive juggernauts that dominate those ranks each year. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Power 5 conference teams can't be a part of shootout. Just last week, Baylor edged TCU 61-58 after an improbable comeback. But that was probably the highest-scoring game in a while. Usually a "shootout" to most high-major teams look more like the 50-43 victory by Notre Dame over UNC. That's usually what constitutes a high-scoring game. Also, that game featured Baylor, who also took part in the most indescribable display of offense I've ever seen from a high-major FBS game. That game was the Baylor-West Virginia bonanza from 2012, their first game as conference foes. Two teams that have established reputations as gun-slinging, high-flying, offensive-orientated squads, Baylor and West Virginia is developing into an awesome rivalry as a result of their similar styles of play and uncanny ability to blow up that stat sheet. And blow up the stat sheet they did! Nowadays, Geno Smith is little more than a punchline as an NFL quarterback. Just two years ago, though, he threw for 656 YARDS AND 8 TOUCHDOWNS against Baylor, leading his then-undefeated WVU squad to 70 points and a W. Geno was on top of the world following that game. He emerged as the Heisman favorite, a legitimate option to be the #1 pick in the draft, and the hero of Morgantown, West Virginia. It would be sad for me to see him throw game-clinching touchdowns to the other team like he did in the Jets' Week 6 loss to the Broncos, only if I didn't despise the New York Jets. Even as he defeated my Texas Longhorns a week later, I couldn't help but find myself being mesmerized by Geno's mind-boggling production through the first 5 games of that 2012 season. As we all know, the wheels fell off immediately after the Texas game for WVU, as Geno started to look shakier and shakier with each loss. He slipped to the 2nd round of the 2013 NFL Draft and has been the object of much media scrutiny as the Jets' quarterback ever since.
12:00 PM ET - 4 Baylor (-7.5) at West Virginia
We may not see another 133-point, 1507 total-yards-combined neutral-viewing dream like we did in 2012, but this week's iteration of the Bears and Mountaineers series should be plenty entertaining. Baylor enters the game as the #1 offense in the country, averaging 623 yards and 52.7 points per game. West Virginia is no slouch in its own right, ranking 8th in YPG. WVU also features one of the top wideouts in the country in Kevin White. White currently leads the entire nation in receiving yards with 888, more than 100 more than the next player. Unsurprisingly, QB Clint Trickett is also 3rd in the country in passing yards. As you can see, this one has all the makings of an exceptional offensive showdown. It may be shocking to hear this, but the defenses should decide this game. Both teams have talent on that side of the ball, even though they aren't known for it. Baylor's top CB, Xavien Howard, is about as physical and competitive a cover corner that I've seen this year, and his matchup against White is easily the one I will be watching most closely. For West Virginia, true freshman safety Dravon Henry has been very good this year, and he pairs with Karl Joseph to form a fairly intimidating secondary. Playing on the road at Morgantown is no joke, but I'm leaning toward Baylor stealing a win, thanks to a late TD from another true freshman phenom, K.D. Cannon.
3:30 PM ET - 21 Texas A&M at 7 Alabama (-13.5)
Another earth-shattering game from two years ago, Texas A&M-Alabama solidified the Johnny Football legacy with his signature upset at Bryant-Denny. This time around, 'Bama isn't quite #1, but they're still a damn good football team. A&M, meanwhile, has gotten swept up in the Mississippi Revolution in their past two games, and they enter this monumental SEC West Matchup with a record of 5-2 overall, and 2-2 in the conference. The Kenny Trill train has certainly slowed down, almost enough to tempt me to call him Kenny Hill again. It's just such a great nickname though. He would need to have a Derek Anderson circa 2009 against the Buffalo Bills-type game for me to officially revoke that piece of gold. The Crimson Tide offense has also looked like a shell of its early-season self in their last two games, combining for only 31 points. Amari Cooper NEEDS to be fed, no matter how many defenders teams are committing to him. 2 catches for 22 yards, like he had against Arkansas, is just unacceptable. Can I really start off my post with two road winners? Yes, I can! A&M has their backs against the wall with 2 losses already and, even though they are probably already eliminated from the playoffs, securing a BCS bowl is still a huge motivating factor. Their defense, led by freshman freak Myles Garrett, will stifle Blake Sims just enough to give them the victory.
4:00 PM ET - 15 Oklahoma State at 12 TCU (-10)
The reason I opted to highlight this game over the equally-important Big 12 matchup of Kansas State-Oklahoma is simply that TCU has suddenly become really exciting to watch, and Ok. St. is always a competitive squad. I don't think I've ever seen a Cowboys team get blown out. This 2014 group is no different: going back to their season-opening loss to Florida State, Oklahoma St. just always hangs around in every game they play. It should be interesting to see if this new-and-improved Horned Frogs team can break that trait. Led by runaway Big 12 Most Improved Player winner Trevone Boykin, TCU has transformed its offense into a wide-open, up-tempo passing attack, as evidenced by its placing of 12th in the nation in passing yards per game. Honestly, I never expected head coach Gary Patterson to turn to the "dark side", so to speak, and join the litany of spread offenses that have taken over college football. TCU was always known for its pro-style offense, like the one that made Andy Dalton into a Rose Bowl winner and 2nd round pick. At home, I don't expect Boykin and the TCU offense to be slowed down any, even against an underrated Cowboys defense. Horned Frogs roll.
8:00 PM ET - Washington at 9 Oregon (-20.5)
It's Shaq time! The Huskies may not pull of the upset on the road in Eugene, but odds are that Washington LB/RB Shaq Thompson will put on a show in prime time on national television (Is Fox Sports 1 national television? I'm actually not sure. I think it is). He also won't win Heisman, but that doesn't mean he isn't one of the most talented college football players in the country. Thompson currently has 5 touchdowns on the season; 3 fumble recoveries, 1 pick-six, and 1 rushing. He has a total of 9 carries for 84 yards, although the touchdown run accounts for 57 of those yards. If that's not enough versatility for you, he even returned 2 punts and 2 kickoffs last year (none for touchdowns, sadly). Thompson's story is a pretty interesting one, as he was a can't-miss, blue-chip safety coming out of high school in Calfornia, but opted to play for Steve Sarkisian and the less-heralded Washington Huskies. Only problem is, Sarkisian left to coach USC prior to this season, but that hasn't stopped Thompson from developing into one of the top defensive players in the country and a probable future first-round pick. Adding to the versatility theme established above, he was even an 18th round draft pick of the Boston Red Sox in 2012! The guy can truly do it all. Oh, I have a game to pick, don't I? Is Marcus Mariota still the quarterback for Oregon? Yeah? Oregon wins.
10:30 PM ET - 23 Stanford (-3.5) at 17 Arizona State
My football-crush on Arizona State WR Jaelen Strong is well-documented by now, and I can't wait to watch him play against the perennially stout Stanford D. By early Sunday morning, when the game is over, Strong will have dominated the Cardinal secondary. It's that simple with him. The Sun Devils' QB situation, on the other hand, is the furthest thing from simple (Was that a Drake reference? Who knows). Filling in for injured starter Taylor Kelly, backup Mike Bercovici, besides sounding like he should be on the Italian national soccer team, has thrown for nearly 1000 yards and precisely 8 TD's to 2 INT's in just two games. That's insane. Bercovici has done a great Matthew Stafford impersonation in his time as a starter, in that he has a tendency to throw it up to his Megatron when all else fails. With Strong, however, most of the time that is a positive habit to have. Just ask USC. Well, Kelly returned to practice this week, although his status for the game is still uncertain. Bercovici has more than proved himself as a capable starter if Kelly can't go, but coming off a 63-27 murder at the hands of UCLA, perhaps Kelly's running element is needed to take down a defense of Stanford's caliber. If I had to guess, I'd say Kelly sticks to the clipboard and sits out another week, leaving Bercovici as the starter in a pivotal game for Arizona State. They are very fortunate to get this game at home, and for that reason, I'll take them to pull off the mild upset (according to the spread). #ForksUp
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