It's no accident that college football is basically just as popular as any other sport in America right now. The brand of football played by these 18-22 year old college athletes are just as exciting, if not more, than that of the pros. Every week we the fans witness countless dynamic, exciting performances that make us think, even if just for a second, that perhaps the college game is the one that deserves the attention that the NFL gets (not the type of attention it has received lately though). After all, every star we see that takes the field on Sundays got their start shining on Saturdays.
What I'm saying is that with the somewhat-but-maybe-not-quite exaggerated demise of the NFL being a major talking point all of a sudden, perhaps this is the perfect time to take a step back from obsessing over the NFL and instead appreciate the college game a little more. Of course, the NCAA is certainly not without flaws, the primary one over the past 15 years being the much-scrutinized BCS system. Credit the NCAA for realizing that they had a problem on their hands (albeit it took way longer than it should have) and acting accordingly. The newly installed playoff system has generated a new level of hype for college football in January, and it hopefully will be a more efficient way to determine each season's best team.
If there were ever a week for a casual college football fan to take my advice and begin following the college game more closely, this would be it. Week 6 is LOADED with great games featuring some of the best players in the country. Week 6 is the type of week that die-hard college fans salivate over when schedules are released over the summer. Week 6 has all the makings of the best Saturday of the regular season.
Don't leave Thursday out though, says Arizona. With their monumental upset over the #2-ranked Oregon Ducks, Arizona officially kicked off Week 6 with just about the most mind-shattering thing you will see this weekend. NO ONE expected Arizona to pull that off. It just didn't feel like one of those "upsets waiting to happen". Mississippi St. had that feel going into their game against LSU, as did Missouri when it stole one at South Carolina last week. Even as the game was unfolding and Arizona was hanging around, you just always got the feeling the Oregon's first explosive play was imminent, and that big play would then in turn open the floodgates. Strangely, it just never happened. Mariota's stats were fine; like always he had no turnovers and racked up 250+ yards of offense by himself. It's not like the running game was shut down or anything, as RB's Royce Freeman and Thomas Tyner averaged 4.4 yards per carry. The Oregon defense didn't let Arizona QB Anu Solomon throw all over them like he had been doing to all his previous opponents, and the Wildcats only averaged 3.8 yards per carry on the ground. See what I mean? All these numbers don't seem to add up to an Oregon loss. It just didn't add up. Unfortunately for the Ducks, games are decided on the field, not on that stat sheet. Arizona was able to find the end zone with 2:54 left in the game to put them up a touchdown, and Oregon wasn't able to respond. Sure, the penalty on Tony Washington was ridiculous and may have cost Oregon the game. But that just can't be a valid excuse for a squad that many, including myself, picked to win it all.
Any way you look at it, the Arizona-Oregon game is looking like an incredible preamble to an extraordinary weekend of college football. Even Taysom Hill and the BYU Cougars are playing on Friday night, which will be an exciting game only because Hill is an absolute delight to watch.
I'm hoping that I'm on my A-game for these picks and analysis. I can't disappoint for the best Saturday of the year. Good luck, me:
12:00 PM ET - 6 Texas A&M at 12 Mississippi State (-3)
In perhaps the biggest home game of Dan Mullen's entire time as the Bulldogs' head coach, Kenny Trill and the Aggies are shockingly receiving 3 points as they travel to Starkville. That just shows the respect Vegas has for this Mississippi State squad. And it's well deserved, because these guys can flat out play. As discussed following the LSU game, Dak Prescott has officially launched himself to the top of any Heisman dark horse list, and the defense definitely lives up to that much-ballyhooed "SEC Defense" billing. This is the only the first game and I'm already having trouble leaning either way. A&M certainly looked human in their OT escape of Arkansas last week, but that offense is still operating at otherworldly-levels of efficiency, and freshman/laboratory product Myles Garrett is an absolute terror for opposing QB's right now. Ultimately, I believe this game will come down to how effective Prescott will be as a passer against a talented Aggie secondary. Senior CB Deshazor Everett has emerged as a force, and sophomore Noel Ellis has stepped up as well. We all know about Prescott's ability to make plays with his legs, but how well will he fare if he is forced to remain in the pocket and make decisions as a charging Garrett is bearing down on him like a cheetah pouncing on its prey? This uncertainty is the driving force behind my decision to predict a 38-31 victory on the road for Texas A&M, and also because Kevin Sumlin.
3:30 PM ET - 3 Alabama (-6) at 11 Ole Miss
Not long after the A&M-Miss. St. game wraps up, less than 2 hours away another SEC heavyweight showdown should be getting underway. And this one is quite a match-up. Heisman contender Amari Cooper and the Tide will roll into Oxford to take on Bo Wallace and the Rebels. I said that Dak Prescott would need the best game of his career to take down LSU, and now I'm proclaiming the same for Mr. Wallace. In his 2nd year as the Rebels' starting QB, expectations are through the roof, especially now that they are off to a 4-0 start. The best Ole Miss QB since Eli Manning, Wallace has a tremendous weight on his shoulders as the pilot of an Ole Miss offense that is tasked with outscoring an Alabama offense that just put up more yards on Florida than any other team in Florida's entire history. The days of Greg McElroy Alabama offenses that scored 21 points and stopped because the other team only had 3 are over. Blake Sims is unlike the usual pocket passers that Saban usually employs. Sims is an impressive athlete with an arm to match. And then there's Cooper, who I have raved about on multiple occasions. Who hasn't at this point? I'm repeating myself here, but the guy is the best college WR I've seen since Justin Blackmon and the distance between the two is closer than you would think. Cooper will almost certainly get his as he always does, but it's up to the rest of the Alabama receiving corps to contribute as well. Ole Miss safeties Trae Elston and Tony Conner are about as good a pair in the country, and they are nightmares for receivers over the middle of the field. Throw in a front seven led by the Nkemdiche brothers, DT Robert and LB Denzel, as well as LB Deterrian Shackleford and DE C.J. Johson, and the Rebels' defense almost looks like it can match the usual ferocity exhibited by the guys that will be on the opposite sideline come Saturday. The Crimson Tide are obviously still no slouches, as there should be plenty of future pros on display, including S Landon Collins, LB Reuben Foster, LB Trey Depriest, and LB Xzavier Dickson. Well, it looks like I just convinced myself to pick my second road team to win. Bama is just too overwhelming, especially when Yeldon and Henry get going on the ground. I just don't see Ole Miss being able to corral those two enough to earn the victory.
3:30 PM ET - 4 Oklahoma (-4) at 25 TCU
Let's take a quick break from the SEC West to show a little Big 12 love, shall we? Don't worry, we will be back to that juggernaut of a division soon enough. Entering this game, some are calling Oklahoma the most dominant team in the nation through the first 5 weeks, and I unfortunately must agree. Pass-rushing menace/owner of the greatest football name ever Eric Striker and the Sooners D has been lockdown, and super frosh Samaje "Optimus" Perine has buoyed the rushing attack while usual lead back Keith Ford recovers from a knee injury. Ford is not expected to suit up against the Horned Frogs, but I have a feeling coach Bob Stoops and Oklahoma fans aren't too worried as that just means more touches for Perine and Alex Ross. QB Trevor Knight doesn't even have to be spectacular to win this admittedly difficult road game with all the talent he has surrounding him. A game-manager role may be the best way to deploy Knight in this one, as efficiency and clock-burning should be stressed over big plays and ill-advised deep bombs. The TCU offense has exceeded expectations so far this season, mostly because WR-turned-QB-turned-WR-turned-QB Trevone Boykin has finally put it all together at the quarterback position. He now seems to be supremely confident in how to properly utilize his athleticism to best move the ball. His progression as a passer has been an pleasant surprise for coach Gary Patterson, and is the main reason TCU fans are eager to notch what would most likely be their biggest win as members of the Big 12. Call it Texas bias, but I think the Horned Frogs will pull it off. Why not? Perhaps Arizona's victory was just a sign of things to come. Mark it down, TCU will be back on the national radar by the end of Saturday night.
3:30 PM ET - 14 Stanford (-2) at 9 Notre Dame
Wow, Vegas is giving no love to the Irish. At home, higher ranking, and still Stanford is 2-point favorites. Well, I don't agree with Vegas, as I think Notre Dame takes this one by 10 points, and here's why. Just last week, the Cardinal less-than-stellar against a pretty mediocre Washington squad in a 20-13 win that required a Kevin Hogan TD run with less than 5 minutes remaining in the game for Stanford to come away with the W. If it weren't for a couple successful Ty Montgomery jet sweeps, the Stanford rushing yard numbers would have looked very, well, un-Stanford like. I believe that Hogan is more than just a handoff-quarterback, but that still doesn't convince me that he can win games against top-tier competition without the punishing rushing attack that he's so used to leaning on. Secondly, we are so used to Stanford simply having a stout defense every year. The three guarantees in this world are death, taxes, and a star-studded Stanford D, right? This year, I just don't quite see it. Where are the Trent Murphy's, Shayne Skov's, and Chase Thomas' that we've seen patrolling the middle of the field the past couple years? Where are the Delano Howell's and Ed Reynolds' making plays in the secondary on this 2014 squad? LB A.J. Tarpley is the only one of those classic Stanford defenders I see on this roster, and he isn't the talent that the guys I just mentioned were. Without their usual defensive playmakers, I don't see how Notre Dame QB Everett Golson, who would be the runaway Comeback Player of the Year if the NCAA gave out the award, doesn't toss the ball around with the same relative ease he has thrown it with all year. RB's Greg Bryant and Tarean Folston provide great support in the run game, and receivers William Fuller and Corey Robinson are an excellent pair of targets for Golson in the passing game. Side bar: Notre Dame TE Ben Koyack projects to be the next in a ridiculously long line of Irish tight ends to be high picks in the NFL Draft. I see Koyack as more of a 4th round pick, which is later than guys like Anthony Fasano (2nd, 2006), John Carlson (2nd, 2008), Kyle Rudolph (2nd, 2011), Tyler Eifert (1st, 2012), and Troy Niklas (2nd, 2014). Still, that is an absolutely insane run of pro tight ends produced by Notre Dame. Crazy thing is, the run won't end with Koyack. Sophomore Durham Smythe projects to be the next great Notre Dame TE, and he is a true receiving threat more in the mold of Rudolph and Eifert than Niklas and Koyack, who are primarily blocking TE's. End of side bar. Back to the game, Notre Dame wins and continues its quest to represent the Independents in the college football playoff, while Stanford shows it may actually only be the 4th best team in the Pac-12.
7:00 PM ET - 15 LSU at 5 Auburn (-8)
See, I told you there would be more SEC West greatness. First note on this game: FOURNETTE. The freshman sensation finally broke out last week, and I don't care one bit that it was against New Mexico State. 18 carries for 122 yards and 2 TD's is 18 carries for 122 yards and 2 TD's. And it was exhilarating to watch Big L (trying out this as a nickname. Purely out of respect to the real one. R.I.P.) run rampant on overmatched defenses again. With that said, I think Auburn handles LSU pretty easily. Fournette may be awesome, but NOTHING tops the run-first, run-second offense that head coach Gus Malzahn has implemented. Led by QB Nick Marshall and RB Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn straight up demoralizes people with a variety of read option, speed options, misdirections, and even simple off-tackle, zone runs that somehow almost always result in chunk gains. Marshall, while not a real polished passer, has even found a new monster target to throw to when dominating the ground game gets a little boring. WR D'haquille Williams is borderline unstoppable in this offense, as all 11 defenders are forced to devote most of their attention to the backfield. Trotting out possibly the best QB-RB-WR combo in college football (interesting note: all three are junior college transfers), Auburn looks to be just too much for the LSU defense to handle. Also, LSU has officially turned over its offense to true freshman Brandon Harris. Harris is plenty talented and looks all but guaranteed to be a future star based on his performances in relief so far this year, but I don't think he's ready for this moment, on the road, against the #5 team in the nation. Look for Auburn to get after Harris and pressure him into some mistakes that could possibly bury LSU early.
No comments:
Post a Comment